Tracking Decision Makers under Uncertainty

Tracking decision makers under uncertainty

Eye tracking is used to investigate the procedures used in choice problems between two lotteries. Eye movement patterns in problems where the deliberation process is clearly identified are used to make inferences in problems where the deliberation process is less straightforward. The data provide little support for the hypothesis that decision makers use exclusively an expected utility type of ...

What do uncertainty-averse decision-makers believe?

This paper introduces the concept of firm belief, which is proposed as a new epistemic model for a wide class of preferences. In particular, firm beliefs are shown to have the following desirable properties: (i) they are derived from preferences according to a plausible rule of epistemic inference; (ii) they satisfy standard logical properties; and (iii) tractable representations of firm belief...

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision under Uncertainty

Many new models have been proposed to quantify uncertainty. But usually they don't explain how decisions must be derived. In probability theory, the expected utility model is well established and strongly justified. We show that such expected utility model can be derived in the other models proposed to quantify someone's belief. The justification is based on special bets and some coherence requ...

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...